Submitted by R.H. Giles, 540-552-8672 or RHGiles@vt.edu
A plan may exist for the present, as in "I have a plan", but it addresses the future. One element of superior wildlife resource management is feedforward. A rarely used word, it is best understood by comparing it to feedback. The best popular example of feedback is the thermostat in the house. It is a procedure that senses the temperature, compares it to the desired temperature, and holds-fast or changes the furnace or air conditioner functions. It is one named "thing", but it is composed of several actions. Feedforward has parallels to feedback. It predicts the future, compares it to goals or objectives, and makes adjustments in the major elements of the present system so that the total system will be very responsive over time to the predicted future conditions.
If a forester predicted rapidly growing interest in a special type or color of wood, he or she might re-forest appropriate areas with those species of trees. In effect, they would be getting ready for the predicted future. Feedforward is not the prediction itself (called "a prediction", a "forecast", or a "future") but the total process of preparing now for the future.
Another example may be useful. A building may be needed and the number of people to be served is estimated to be 200. The costs may be too great to build for 200 and no more than 100 would be served in the first 5 years. A building is then built for 100, full well knowing it is too large now (there are only 40-50 potential users), just right for 100 later, but too small for the growing group. Feedforward involves taking risks and carefully analyzing the meaning of being "most right over the longrun". In some cases average annual performance will be a good measure. In other cases, there is a need to keep the deviations (e.g., peak loads) small.
No one can know the future. Feedforward was omitted from early development of general systems theory for it was unknown in biological systems (only in humans). The future can be estimated (future estimates are called "predictions"). Some things are known at such a high probability that they can be assumed to be known (e.g., water running downhill, the sun rising). Otherwise it seems reasonable to discuss the probability of future events.
We may not know the future price of wood, but we know about wood, prices in the past, and can see the influences of transportation, national economy, and housing starts on the price of wood. Our estimates of the future price are made with some confidence. Our accuracy is pretty good. We do know much about the future … at least we can make good predictions. Knowing the price (or similar measurable units) can suggest things to do now to get ready (e.g., cut backs if there is an unlikely payoff; increase production if the costs are in line with net gains). The price of wood influences timber rotation decisions. Such decisions affect the age classes of the forests upon which individual species are tightly linked. We can see the future for a species and it is managerially proper to make adjustments now ... anywhere within the system ... to make actual conditions approximate the desired conditions then, with as few negative effects as possible for now.
Foresters are among a special group of people who use feedforward in society. Predicting the future and planting trees for that future is one of the most long-term projects with payoffs far outside of the limits for most current businesses.
There are methods and procedures for improving feedforward:
An example of a change analysis is that related to a sharply decreased supply of nitrogen; thus more areas in farms are needed to produce the same amount of food, thus less forests and wetlands, thus more intensive use of some forested areas, thus less intensive use of some areas (e.g., old growth).
A similar pattern might be used with decreases in the supply of phosphorus, thus major decreases in crops a, b, and c; thus reduced amounts in ponds, thus reduced eutrophication, also reduced crop wastes due to shift in production of crops…and wildlife effects.
Feedforward includes the special concept of a failsafe action or operation. Depending on how sensitive to system is to failure or how harmful will be the consequences of failure, backup or failsafe mechanisms are needed. The failsafe action looks ahead, attempts to describe worst-case scenarios, predicts the consequences, and then attempts to take action at reasonable costs that will prevent a failure. An police person or agent traveling with another agent as "backup" is a simple example. A modern agency failing to get a license increase will likely have a failsafe mechanism. Endangered species, for example, may need intensive protection by officers, but that may not work or be insufficient or may contain lapse periods of no protection. A protective fence may be another simple example of a failsafe mechanism for this problem. An officer carrying two guns and an educator carrying 2 projectors are examples. For truly important events, double backup is always suggested (and even that fails, but the costs can rarely be justified, given the odds of multiple failures). Practical people on tight budgets will rarely tolerate having around apparently unused things, the backups for the things in use.
Predictions as part of feedforward can influence behavior, even change the future state. This feedback phenomenon, although it may complicate the prediction process but it can be integrated for the increasingly superior wildland management system. Even dire predictions are made, hoping that change will be stimulated and thus that the prediction will be wrong.
These are general and introductory comments about feedforward. Others are available within www.LastingForest.com.
Contributor: R.H. Giles, Jr.
This Web site is maintained by R. H.
Giles, Jr.
Last revision March 20, 2001