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A Preliminary Research and Development Proposal

Title:

Lightning Occurrence in Virginia

Objectives:

1. To create a high-resolution GIS map layer of lightning occurrence for the state from existing data.
2. To describe the patterns observed and their effects over time on the ecosystems of Virginia.
3. To integrate existing GIS map layers of land cover, land form (indicative of forest floor layer debris and wildlife fuel), rainfall precipitation, and summer monthly temperature indices into a lightning wildfire risk index.
4. To unify the complex map developed to achieve objective 3 with map layers of roads and fire-fighting centers.

Potential Participants:

U.S. Army, Ft. A.P. Hill; U.S. Forest Service; Virginia Department of Forestry; Federal Office of Emergency Preparedness; Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge; and others

Overview: There are needs for lightning-occurrence maps. Never before possible, thus unimaginable, the maps can:

1. Help save time in studies, administration, fire suppression, etc.
2. Reduce fire suppression costs
3. Help allocate the placement of permanent fire suppression centers and labor forces
4. Reduce chances of loss of human life or reduce injuries
5. Decrease fire contact time and reduce acres burned
6. Reduce human, structural, and livestock losses
7. Gain new understanding of forest site quality (relative to nitrogen inputs)
8. Gain new knowledge of landscape patterns (for plants as well as animals) and site quality (relative to frequency of burns over time)
9. Gain a new map layer(s) that may allow further discrimination and statistical control over the factors affecting almost any ecological factor or wildfire analysis under investigation in the future.

Any one of the above seems to justify this project but in total, the gains can be very great.

Data on lightning locations are available from Global Atmospherics, Inc. and elsewhere. All other map layers mentioned above now exist for the state, a recent accomplishment by the Fish and Wildlife Information Exchange. Latham et al. (1997) have developed related maps for the Northwest US. Problems with lightning and forest fires in the West are entirely different than those of Virginia. In this project we work toward gaining a broad landscape scale spatial pattern for lightning and how it may affect wildlands. Latham et al. (1997) moved beyond location to attempts to predict lightning ignition potential and fire danger. Herein we seek only refined probability of occurrence over time and then to unify that with an index to probable ignition.

With information from local fire-fighting groups, attack rates from roads can be developed and areas mapped (the zones around roads and lakes). Such a map with the ignition probability map should highlight special areas and allow planning for special attack procedures or for rational "let-burn" decisions.

The analyses above are likely to have relevance in developing plans, strategies, and tactics for the consequences of terrorists' actions.

Literature Cited

Latham, D., R. Burgan, C. Chase, and L. Bradshaw. 1997. Using lightning location in the wildland fire assessment system. USDA Forest Serv., Intermountain Research Station, Gen. Tech. Rpt INT-GTR-349, Ogden, Utah 6 p.

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Last revision January 17, 2000.