GuideA: A Proposal for Operation on a Park or other Dedicated Land

It is therefore possible to describe with maps the site-specific (all relevant ecological factors and forces inside every hectare of a Park) conditions and likely changes over 50 years (due to ecological succession as understood at the time).

The data, models, concepts are dynamic, undergoing editing and change. We specify wildland and exclude cultural, structural and unique historic sites but include mapped parcels and the phenomena of edge (e.g., the grassy "battlefield" or roadside) and include these general spaces in analyses of patchiness, fragmentation, and spatial diversity.

The system, as designed, addresses much-discussed:

• island biography
• landscape ecology
• biodiversity (an multi-factor aggregate index)
• ecosystem analyses
• similarity
• ecoregion classification
• species richness
• ecological history
• sustainability
• linkages
• ecological risk analysis
• allowing interpreters to use these analyses in different ways for different publics.

The system, when developed, will provide analyses of consequences of proposed major development nearby and within a Park.

Wildland responses to predicted recreational use increase may be included in plans. No financial planning is included in the present system, and structural or road maintenance is not included. The dynamic nature of the system would allow an analysis of consequences of a wildfire on viewscapes, runoff, deer forage, and trail use. These observations may be included in some types of plans.

Computer programs use data from many sources. There are programs being developed at Virginia Tech. Some are "off the shelf." Some are included in GRASS, the major geographic information system now adopted by the Park Service for major use. The raster or map-cell-based principle of the powerful GRASS system is what is needed for the GuideA system.

The products of GuideA are descriptive documents, separate analytical programs such as those already delivered for similarity and diversity estimates. The main products are computer-produced maps showing some specific phenomena, parkwide or in some map window. The following are examples that are proposed for development. Others may be requested or substituted:

• erosion rates
• biomass
• probable C/N ratio
• likely occurrence of neotropical migrant X
• avian richness (where to see the most species)
• likely habitat of the flying squirrel
• suitable conditions for attempting reintroduction of plant species Y
• areas with highest likely Shannon index of diversity
• likely change by year 50 in minnow fish, if global warming of T amount continues
• change in the total species list if there are no fires, no disturbances, and no vegetation management for 50 years
• viewscape indices from all points within the Park (baseline 1994).

GuideA is based on an easy but long and complex set of ideas.

Parklands are large

No one can visit every site

In a Park with 60,000 acres to go to the center of each acre just once and conducts analyses for only one day will require 288 working years without counting time to write the reports

Massive data sets now exist useful on any park

Many factors for which data are not available are highly correlated with other factors; estimates produced by equations can be used

Single-factor maps can be produced

Single-factor maps can be put on transparencies and overlaid

Overlaying physical maps is difficult and has severe limitations

Computer overlays are possible and we have done that since our first work in 1969

Overlays of 30-50 factors can be done. Sufficient discrimination usually results after using 10-12.

Computer models using the factors in each map cell are now possible and needed

Not only factors in a cell are relevant but also those nearby and these can be included

New expert system methods can be used. These include ideas such as "if factor a has a value of greater than 4.8 but less than 6.2 then A = 1, else A = 0 and go to the next factor."

Ecological models that produce results (e.g., primary production or a diversity index) for each cell are possible. The program is run for each cell. Results are presented in maps and reports.

Reports from the GRASS and other similar systems include areas, frequency counts, and proportions (e.g., area in each covertype or in habitat suitable for a species)

Changes due to ecological succession can be modeled. A fire occurs. Map the area. On north-facing cells, what plants will naturally reseed? Map them. On south-facing slope map cells? Map them. Map the area as it is likely to be in 10 years; in 30 years. Park ecologists already know these relations.

The system captures that knowledge and puts it into at least one potentially useful product.

The results: maps of the wildlands of any park for historical interpretation, new baseline, records, and future use as they change in space.

It is now possible to create sophisticated ecological models that are oriented to the objectives of the Parks and decisions made by Park Managers. Analyses on each Park will allow comparisons to be made among Parks. As at no time in the past, results from ecological research funds can be harvested and very specific research needs identified as they contribute to the power of ecological models designed to aid in management decision making.

Components of the proposed system:
Existing Models
Maps
GuideA Models for interpreting. planning, and managing
Reports
National Data
Local Data

Map factors are separated and A map for each factor is created.
Soils
Boundaries
Roads
Slope
Aspect
Elevation
Transpiration
etc.
(Map data are collected as if in cells, pixels (raster) map data are also collected as lines between points (vector).) These are transferable. There are many reasons why one is chosen over the other. GRASS uses raster. We propose to use both in a 2-stage, raster-then-vector approach.

A model is created

Probability of

Tree Species = a + b slope + c aspect + d elevation + e transpiration + f ...

Store the map data
Revise and improve it
Revise and improve models
Create reports
Create "pretty" maps

1. Automate the Ecological Inventory
2. Create new "community" maps (based on cell-specific modified evapotranspiration in a growing period)
3. Develop a land use control strategies map: (acquisition and other use-control strategies)
4. Provide forest analysis using the "understanding the forest" system now being developed in Maryland (making it available at a modest "profit" in a not-for profit organization)
5. Working with others, describe the terrestrial and terrestrial-related ecosystem, with major components of:
   1. geomorphology
   2. climate
   3. vegitation dynamics
   4. biodeversity
   5. landscape ecology (40 indices)
   6. decomposition
   7. baseline theory
   8. sampling theory using GIS
   9. soil dynamics
   10. the system in three dimensions and in time
   11. historical ecology

6. Describe the land matrix, cell-level dependencies, then the concept of "natural area prime" a mathematical index to the intensity of need (or 1.0 - risk) for preserving or achieving significant control over land as (1) single units, (2) a system of preserves or units, (3) buffer or edge-influence zones or, (4) corridors.

   The solution system is not unlike that developed within Guidance, namely maximize R* where

   R* = [1.0-(R-r/R)]C

   Where R* is the Park performance measure, R is the sum of the highly desired areas, r is the sum of the currently preserved or controlled areas and C is cost.