| A unit of Lasting Forests
evolving since March 30, 1999 |
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A Total Forest Management Plan
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Weather is the description of a set of things that occur in the atmosphere at a place and time. It is a group of forces, changes, relations, and effects. These conditons are influenced by climate (discussed below), the long-term, large-area conditions, trends, and relations that occur above the ground in what is called the atmosphere.
The atmosphere is one of the four universalk "spheres", namely the litho-, hydro-, bio-, and atmosphere.
Animals are a function of plants, and plants are a function of the atmosphere, so it is not a bad idea to have as complete knowledge as possible of the atmosphere and its weather. It is a dominant component of ecosystems (however they are defined). Atmospheric factors are listed among those called "abiotic" by those people holding that ecosystems are primarily "plants and animals,". not merely the total system.
Weather plays important roles in forests, rangelands, pastures, meadows, lakes and streams. In forest, it influences seedling survival, seed dispersal, calf elk survival, the flowering of plants, the spread of disease, and the hatch of insects. Climate has a more general and massive effect such as determining species present in an area and total biomass present.
Differences in weather and climate are determined by regional air masses modified by topography and distance from controlling features such as mountain crests and ocean edges. People's activities such as logging and prescribed burning can effect micorclimate or conditions close to the ground, but rarely weather or climate. Wildfire of vast scale can affect both weather and climate.
Weather data are costly to collect. The instrument costs are high but minor compared to daily or weekly labor costs needed to monitor the instrument, analyze the results, and make the reports. Thousands of weather stations seem to provide enormous amounts of data, but for the informed rural system manager, the sampling intensity is quite low. Each singular federal or state weather station seems to be assumed to represent well the weather in an area of several thousand square miles. The samples are few, not taken at random. Single instruments always differ within groups placed at a single site. Sites are costly, however, and we have limited data. We need to use what data we do have as skillfully as possible. We need to be deductive, then with a well-designed strategy, to do selective sampling to improve knowledge of weather. We need to answer "why" at every turn. The weather is an interesting topic; we need to be sure that among the infinite questions for which we can seek answers, the first questions shall be those identified in the models of Rural Ssytem enterprises as factors to which benefits seem most sensitive.
We generalize about the local weather. With generalizing comes risks. We reduce risks by improving models (first), then using advanced selective data gethering techniques, rapid sophisticated analyses, and finally use the information produced to change the total system.
One objective of this report is to show and document human effects on the roral region, showing the role of weather in total system management. It may have a role in "education and research" but these are nebulous and with few (if any) criteria for success. We propose using weather data in models that relate to silviculture, range growth and yields, animal behavior, and human recreational activity. We know eather varies in terrain and we need to describe it and how it varies and be able to map it in real time to serve fire fighters, planting crews, herd managers, and managers of recreational groups (e.g., permit hunters).
Vegetation groups are distinctive. We need to continually evaluate the timing of seed rain and weather factors for rarely do people appreciate the lost element of forestry -- the dominant trees (each 100-200 years old) are a function of the weather conditions at the tree base in the week of its seed placement and later that of its seed germination. Present conditions can be expected to correlate only poorly with initail conditions in the woody plant world.
Many weather stations are only operated in summer months. We know little of the whole ecosystem anywhere. Even in Eastern US States, few stations have an unbroken record of 30 years. Broken records are lost data, failed equipment, or labor problems1.
| 1We think it is important to realize that "balanced modeling systems" are needed. It is inappropriate to struggle for 4-decimal precision in one part of a system and accept 1-decimal precision and great uncertainty in another part and use such numbers, simultaneously, in the same models. Systems, like math relations, must yield to the lowests significant figures. |
Graphs (similar to the hypothetical ones nearby) as well as text for each forest will be in the system that is under development
See Klopfer for GIS units for Virginia solar radiation, evapotranspiration, temperature and precipitation.
Klopfer, S. D. 1998. Insolation, precipitation, and moisture maps for a Virginia geographic information system. M.S. Thesis, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA. 184 pp. electronic thesis access: http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/theses/public/etd-7197-113632/etd-title.html
A bibliography on the effects of climate on wildlife is available.
Another with references of effects of climate change on wildlife is also available.
Also see main climate change site, one related to vernal pools.
For recent past weather conditions go to www.accuweather.com, specify the city or place, then click on past year on the left side of the page. Also see www.nws.noaa.gov
A paper, "the warmer wildlands strategy" is underway.
See climatic warming and carbon dioxide impacts.
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This Web site is maintained by R. H.
Giles, Jr.
Last revision December 29, 2006.