Antler Points

Professor Bob Giles, recently retired from Virginia Tech's wildlife department said that he was trying to think-through and design a total system that would one day achieve major changes in the way that the wildlands might be managed. He knew that hunters would have to be involved in many ways. He calls the imaginary, dreamed-of system Lasting Forests and has a concept of hunting and special hunters in a voluntary organization that has levels of acheievement. As he began developing notes and reflecting on things he had said to students over 35 years, he developed the following list of rules. He imagines hunters becoming more involved in a new type of wildlife study and involvement in expert knowledge and when they do, they will probably understand and use the following ideas about making observations in the wildlands.

The rules of reason for the Lasting Forests Hunter - becoming the rational wildland resource observer and user:

1. An observation must be made 3 times in the same area at the same time of year for it to "count."
2. Counted observations can be put together to form a general "truism."
3. Many truisms lead to truth.
4. Improving truisms leads to truth.
5. There are no "facts."
6. Nothing can be known with complete certainty (except this rule).
7. Observations are samples from a large set of all possible observations.
8. A good sample is needed, not too many, not too few.
9. Things in nature are more alike than different. Assuming "no prior knowledge" about nature or natural functions is silly science.
10. "Freaks" and "freak events" occur in nature. They are rare, interesting, but are irrelevant to the resource manager.
11. The more confident you must be in stating a condition, or some measure, generally the more samples you need.
12. The more naturally variable a group of conditions or measures, the more samples are needed.
13. The more tolerant that you are of being a little off in stating a value, the fewer samples you need.
14. Don't make measurements more precise than are necessary.
15. Sample things inside of groups, not "in general."
16. It is easy to bias an observation, difficult to select a representative sample. Work to get unbiased observations.
17. Animals and plants are like each other, not people. Do not assign human traits to them.
18. For management purposes, finding the maximum and minimum values are more important than finding the average. Ranges are more important than means.
19. Rarely will one factor alone be in control of an animal or plant system. Usually there are three major factors. The animal or plant population can be imagined to be within a box of 3 dimensions.
20. With the box changing over time, one extra dimension, it is easy,then, to think of 4-dimensional systems, then n-dimensional systems.
21. In the wildlands, observation measurements are clumped, not well distributed like school grades that have about equal highs and lows. The average value is rarely in the middle of a distribution of measures.
22. In the wildlands, the average value rarely (if ever) occurs.
23. If you change something in the environment (e.g., fertilize, build a deer waterhole) to get an improvement and there is no significant difference, you probably wasted money. It is expected that measurements and observations differ. Whether the difference "makes any difference" is the question. When they are "significantly different" it means the difference is more than that expected from chance or that there is great risk in saying they are the same. Hold the question until it is resolved.
24. Things change over time. More than 30 years of data are needed to draw solid conclusions about real change since many changes may be due to chance alone.
25. Things in nature are variable. If they were not, only 1 sample would be needed.
26. Most things in nature are predictable, suggesting that things are not as variable as bell-shaped or normal statistics suggest.
27. Combinations of different things in nature can produce the same results.
28. Small simple "rules" that can be followed instantly by animals dominate natural systems. Learning the rules (as suggested by chaos theory) is the task of the modern and future wildland scientist and manager.
29. The prior condition of an animal in nature can produce the same results as a change in an environmental factor.
30. The prior condition of an animal or plant is usually more influential in its presence, growth, or condition than any single factor.
31. Transition tables make sense. They replace "succession."
32. Sequence of events or factors usually has more influence on animals or plants than the amount of any one factor.
33. Drawing sweeping or general conclusions based on observations of other species in the same genus may suffice until detailed observations are made of the animals of real interest.
34. Conclusions need to be made, but they are tentative. If they are not, then the reason has to be clearly stated.
35. Be skeptical (even of this rule).
36. Decisions are only made between (or among) two or more things. Do not play the "only one option" game.
37. Because there is not certainty, then every decision is risky. Make decisions but lower the risks.
38. Express risk as probable failure to achieve an estimated or approximate financial yield or project payoff.
39. The same factors are never at work at the time of an observation is made in the wilds. Collect information on the observation, then associated factors, so differences among observations can be adjusted.
40. The conditions in the first month of life for a wild plant or animal are the conditions to measure, rarely those of the adult.
41. Use what you think you know well first; things can get better before the last study is done.
42. There are no ecosystems. The word serves well in teaching and programming, not in management.
43. Use alpha units or pixel elements of multi-factor computer mapping systems. Every 10 x 10 m pixel on Earth's surface is unique.
44. Wildland units or systems designated by humans fail because the objectives are unclear. Even where they are clear, there are few feedback functions. Feedback must work...even on itself.
45. Since scientists will never learn 200 important topics about each of 2000 animals in North America (or more for the rest of the world), and will never learn the n(n-1) relations among them (said to be the definition of "ecology") then it is illogical for them to continue to act as if they will do so.
46. Many questions in the wildlands cannot be answered by "science." Too much faith in science may not serve people of the wildlands well. Alternatives are available.

This Web site is maintained by R. H. Giles, Jr.
Last revision January 17, 2000.