Antler Points

Objectives:

1. To develop a farm-level deer damage analysis system.

2. To develop a computer system that produces deer damage reduction recommendations.

Overview:

Reports about deer damage increase. Damage is readily perceived in forests, cropland, and gardens. This project develops a technique for analyzing deer damage in such areas and for providing an estimate of it for damage claims, insurance claims, tax loss reports, or for justifying various educational and control operations.

We propose to develop a BASIC program for a hand-held computer for use in the field that will prompt the user with a minimum set of questions. Answers are entered while in the field (e.g., paced distance across a field) by the user, and an answer is obtained on-the-spot. Data are also stored, and a later report - more expansive - is produced by an office computer augmenting the field data with data from other sources (e.g., county deer harvest records) and wildlife information system records. Recommendations for control from a technique called "expert systems" will be attempted.

This project combines information on financial analysis, agricultural economics, deer nutrition and foraging, integrated pest damage management, and estimates of deer population dynamics.

The procedure will be used in the field, and its suitability appraised.

Methods and Procedures:

This project will result, at the end, in (1) an analysis of deer damage in the southeastern U.S.; (2) a design for assessing financial loss from deer; (3) a computer program(s) for use in a hand-held, field computer to collect data and to do preliminary damage assessment; (4) an annual regional summary based on data from #3; (5) a computer program that uses information from the field (an electronic field form) to produce a useful report for farmers, refuge managers, and others; (6) reports about #3 and #4; (7) 3 Master of Science theses, and (8) several public and scientific presentations.

All of the above will be made available for public or private use. The following text describes the methods for producing each component of the system that achieves the objectives.

Damage Analysis

A superior M.S. candidate will be recruited to develop a comprehensive summary of deer populations in the southeastern states and their effects. This will be primarily through literature surveys but will include telephone surveys.

A general purpose simulation will be created to assess the nature of the damage problems and the consequences of several strategies of population control. This will be for the southeastern states. Following this study and its evaluation, perhaps the same type study can be made in other APHIS Regions and for the U.S.

This study sets the stage for subsequent work. It includes a developing theory of damage and financial effects of deer in a region. It develops the introductory remarks and analyses for a computer report to be produced by a system in part 2 of this R and D effort.

Financial Loss Analysis

A second M.S. student will design a financial analysis of the deer resources in a state. This has long been needed, and we now have a set of concepts by which this can be done, all computer-aided. These include:

1. modified present discounting
2. simulation-based product yield
3. opportunity cost
4. relative benefits per unit cost
5. rational managers' expenditures

These will be linked to the deer resource and its regional damage, but then related to the damage or monetary loss, that the average farmer or landowner can be expected to tolerate.

Subsequent analyses relate to the farm accounting system and the influence of deer on the enterprise profit with emphasis on risk analyses.

Field Computer

Several companies (e.g., Corvallis Technology) now produce hand-held computers for use in the field. Using BASIC programs developed by the PI and research assistants, these prompt field observers for making specific data entries. They are extensive enough to provide computations of answers or approximations. The data can be returned to an office, entered into a computer, then extensive reports produced from text, tables, models, etc. will be stored and ready for access. The report, when requested, can then be sent to the farmer, refuge manager, etc. immediately. The uses are numerous, ranging from general interest to tax and insurance form information.

Regional Summary

Collected summary data allow an annual regional summary report to be made. This will be produced by a computer program.

Report Producer

The data from the field are transferred electronically to a computer where a program produces a highly readable text about deer damage in general ... and in particular ... based on the data from the field observer. This is the same data being used (as above) but in much more extensive ways and with explanatory text. There will be in the report, text, tables, summary statistics, and detailed prescriptions about actions to take that may reduce deer damage, if any, given the conditions. This report then can be mailed, faxed, or hand-carried (to allow discussions) by a consultant or agency employee.

Reports describing the above will be prepared for reproduction.

Team Work

There will be three Master of Science theses produced and delivered to APHIS describing the work above. This is a team effort of the 3 students, each emphasizing

1. preliminary analyses and general model
2. field analyses
3. report-producing system

All are tightly linked and supervised by the major professor and a small select committee and with inputs from APHIS staff and others.

There are no funds requested for the great amount of time to be invested by the P.I.

Duration: 3 years

Cooperators:

Dr. Patrick F. Scanlon and Dr. James A. Parkhurst

Budget (1994 estimate was $199,777 for the total 3-year project)

This Web site is maintained by R. H. Giles, Jr.
Last revision January 17, 2000.