A unit of Lasting Forests
Sustained forests; sustained profits
evolving since March 30, 1999
of an Alternative Wildlife Resource Management
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Part of the reason for emphasizing the word relations in the definition is to recognize and start working with the important but rarely-mentioned concept of sequence in ecology and other affairs of life. Eveyone who has worked with a lawn knows that the effects of fertilizing before watering has significantly different effects than fertilizing after watering. This is a trivial example but profoundly important. Alliens, not familiar with Earth processes, might measure water and fertilizer, place it in their computer, and find no significant relationships of these two factors and grass-mass. Similarly, a seed rain after a forest fire results in a different community of plants than the same seed-fall before a fire of exactly the same characteristics.
One of the most influential paired sequence in wildland work is the slight soaking rain before the heavy rain. Moist soild absorbs rainfall better than dry soil; some sandy soils actually retard rainfall uptake and set up situations for major erosion. The same volumes of rainfall in the gauge may not express the profound differences in the responses of the land to the sequence of such precipitation events.
Fairly well-known is the difference in rainfall runoff from wildlands after a freeze or snowfall. The same record of precipitation can have very different results in the streams and spaces of the aquatic fauna. Organic soils have several "anti-freeze" substances that may reduce the extent of freezing and thus the effects of a hard freeze in the wildlands on runoff. The occurrence of fogdrip can have profound effects on seed germination, especially in relation to occurrence of wind and rain. Berlinski (1976:43) is said to have remarked about a plate of ham and eggs that the total value depends on which is served first, the plate or the ham and eggs! K.E.F. Watt (1971) had important comments on sequence in environmental systems.
These natural history type observations are typically interesting and fun to know but the principle underlying them is that things in nature cannot be estimated well with conventional models for scientific relationships. We may hope for an excellent simple, straight-line model such as
B = a + cD
where B is some biological thing of interest such as food for animals and D is the factor that is strongly related. "The more D that you have D, the more B you will get" would be the rough summary. This may be a true summary of conventional studies but there are needs for at least two models so that D takes on a few values such as D' (when rainfall has been less than 2 cm) of D'' (when rainfall has been 2 cm or greater).
Permutations were discussed in highschool, again in math, and again in genetics classes, but they seem irrelevant in most of life. How many ways can 26 letters be arranged for licence plates? seemed like a good quiz question. For the modern faunal systems person they are a part of everyday thought. They produce a type of awe and humility. Some people have found the burden of knowing the implications of permutations in the field too much and have left the field. There are many dimensions and consequences of grasping the meaning of permutations and integrating it into a management style.
Permutations are a count of the sequences within which a number of things(N) can be arranged. The symbol is N! and is called N-factorial. Three-factorial is the product of 3 x 2 x 1 or 6. There are 6 ways to arrange 3 things (like A,B, and C; try it). In a managerial system with equipment delivery, fertilizer delivery, staffing, purchase orders, and other elements, there may be 9 elements. 9! is 362,880. The numbers become astoundingly large very quickly. There are probably several optimal sequences (in terms of efficiency, cost, morale, and effects on the environment). Selecting the best sequence (or a small set) is very difficult and the odds of doing so are very small (merely 1/362,880).
As the manager looks at almost any ecosystem, there are over 50 factors and nameable and measureable elements. 50! is 3.0 x 1064, an astronomically great set of potentially unique sequences and states of the system. (Recall that 3.0 x 106 is scientific notation for 3 million.) Understanding 50 factors is almost impossible; understanding their sequences is daunting. Acting as if they are understood is arrogance.
The modern manager must
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Last revision January 17, 2000.