| [ HOME | Guidance Home | Table of Contents | The Finder | Glossary ] |
The lands and waters of the area can be designed and managed to achieve objectives. We assume this is necessary because only by chance might natural processes and conditions achieve an optimum condition in one year. Nature is dynamic, even more than human objectives, so a perfect match between conditions and needs, extremely rare, is likely to be for only a short time.
"Goals" and "objectives" are discussed. Within the diverse fields of the environment, engineering, and economics, professional groups use these words differently. For that reason we suggest using "objectives" and recognizing 7 types.
The essence of Type 1 objectives is in the authority provided by 16 U.S.C. 670, "Conservation Programs on Military Installations", Reference (b).
The 15 objectives listed in DoD 4715.DD-R can be grouped within the suggested types.
1.1(8) To use and care for natural resources so as to best serve our Nation's present and future needs.
1.2(11) To manage lands capable of producing wildlife, food, fiber, forest products and outdoor recreation opportunities consistent with the assigned military mission.
2.1(2) Support the military mission.
2.2(1) Guarantee continued access to our land, air, and water resources for realistic miliary training and testing.
2.4(6) To encourage a conservation ethic throughout DoD.
4.1(1) [To ensure that the resources entrusted to DoD care remain healthy and available for multiple uses by future generations.]
4.2(2) To avoid any net loss to the operational carrying capacity of installation lands.
4.3(2) To achieve flexibility in ability to accommodate increased military mission requirements for using these lands.
4.3(3) To comply with all applicable Executive orders and Federal, State, and local statutory and regulatory requirements, both substantive and procedural.
4.4(5) To ensure that other current and planned installation activities (e.g., military training plans, master plans, construction requests, site approval requests, host-tenant agreements, and outleases) are effectively coordinated with and consistent with activities described in the integrated natural resources management plan (INRMP).
5.1(4) To identify, protect, conserve, and manage sensitive and significant natural resources and ecosystems.
5.2(4) To promote the conservation of biodiversity on DoD lands and waters whenever practicable.
5.2(6) To provide an understanding of the need to protect and conserve natural resources through good stewardship.
5.3(7) To assess the environmental consequences of each proposed action that could affect the natural environment.
5.4(7) To address the significant impacts of each action through analysis, planning, mitigation, and prevention.
5.4(10) To restore and rehabilitate adversely altered or degraded habitats and resources.
5.5(12) To provide for sustained public access and use of natural resources for educational or recreational purposes when such access is compatible with mission activities, and with other considerations such as security, safety, or resource sensitivity.
5.6(13) To encourage partnerships and volunteers to enhance conservation programs whenever practicable.
5.7(14) To strengthen the scientific basis for natural resources management by integrating research and management.
5.8(15) To provide for enforcing natural resource laws and regulations by professionally trained personnel.
6.1(9) To develop criteria and procedures for monitoring the effectiveness of natural resources management on lands under DoD stewardship and control and impacted by DoD activities.
The objective-formulation process is usually long and difficult. There are typically about 100 primary objectives. When these are well stated, then citizens can assign weights to them (relative importance or value), estimate the number of units of each resource they believe will satisfy them, estimate the probability of achieving each objective every year, and state which objectives might be achieved in another way (substitutions). The process is difficult but it can be done and, once done, a score can be computed. Where R* is the stated best score for an area, then the condition of the area can be estimated. This condition is Rt. Thus, a score can be obtained.
Rt+1 = R* - S(R* - Rt) (equation 1)
The concept is that a perfect score of 100 can be imagined (perhaps never achieved, as perfect engine performance cannot be achieved). An actual score of Rt can estimated. This is the condition of the station at some time, t, relative to the prefect R*. Whatever our actual score it, in the next period, t+1, we want the score to stay the same or to improve. S is the tendency of the system to stay the same, to be stable [sustainable or "sustained"]. It has a value of 1.0 when no changes are being made; it is stable. It can be changed as in:
S = 1.0 - C (equation 2)
where C is managerial control or managerial influence of any type. By various managerial action (ideas, skill, projects completed, actions taken) C can influence the typical condition -- fast, slow, or no change. C can be viewed as the modifier of the difference between Rt and R*. A value of C, for example 0.3, results in S being 0.7 and in an example of conventional system performance, when an overall system score of 70 exists then, under the influence of a constant level of control, C, the 0.3 scores over the next few years will be as follows:
Under constant influence of C being 0.3 or reducing the difference by about a third, it will take 18 years to move from a score of 79 to 100. With improvement (a progressively greater value of C due to experience, i.e., with C changing with g, then
C = C (1.0 + g) (equation 3)
This is a simple linear rate increase limited to 1.0. Where g is an annual improvement based on learning and experience and is about 0.05, then the time required to get a score in the above situation is reduced to 12 years. If a score of greater than 95 is acceptable, then only 4 to 6 years is required.
Alternative investments in securing or achieving any of the objectives may be evaluated for Rt+1 as a function of C. Conventional break-even analyses can be done as C may be increased.
The equation or expression of Rt may be very simple or complex. Over time, the more refined, precise statements will assure greater accountability and clarity of ways to invest limited budgets. Rt is an expression of resource benefits and these may be estimated, i.e., given an expert's estimated value for each ith objective, thus
I
Rt = S zi (equation 4)
i=1
This procedure is easily biased but it is most easily, quickly, and cost-effectively developed.
More refined and described in Giles' (1978) Wildlife Management is the objective weighing procedure. This is
I
Rt = S xivi (equation 5)
i=1
This computation is the product of the estimate of how well each objective is achieved (say on a scale of 0 to 10) and the weight or relative importance to the public or area leaders of each objective, vi.
No matter what the units of measure used, they are converted on a relative scale to proportions of a likely maximum or most-likely feasible state.
An improved alternative is
P I T
Rt = S S S Dpit Vpit Ppit ( equation 6)
p=1 i=1 t=1
where P is the subgroups or publics involved, In subsequent work, part of an extended plan, we propose to add Spi to the formulation. It is the concept of substitution. An objective may be stated but it might be achieved, even surpassed by another occurrence. A bird watcher may want to see many species but may see only a few birds but one never seen before. Rarity substituted for abundance.
That demands and values change over time seems evident but we are unaware of anywhere these changes are used (as described above) in developing estimates of the condition of a natural resource area and then using this value in adaptive management.
Part of this plan is to attempt to develop conversation and discussions with citizens so that a well developed set of objectives may be formulated. Once done, then the power of the computer can be used to achieve longterm optimization. Sample objectives follow.
To "optimize" means to maximize, subject to constraints. In the recommended formulation, we believe that linear programming may be used as a good approximation procedure given the estimates and uncertainties of the environment and the changes in people's objectives (all dimensions). An alternative procedure, using succession concepts, needs to be explored. Computer aids to both are being developed. Optimization, using linear programming is demonstrated in the Forest Resource Management section.
Sample Primary Objectives (an expanded list is available) :
LAND USE
FIRE
RECREATION AND LEISURE
LANDSCAPING AND VEGETATION
OPEN SPACE
ESTHETICS AND BEAUTIFICATION
WASTE
As with many natural resource areas, objectives have not been well developed. part of the plan is attempts to develop a procedure for use on the Station, one that may also be used elsewhere. Until then, and its development depends on available resources, Type - 1 objectives suffice. These are perceived to be:
To provide outdoors conditions that provide a working environment for military scientists and base personnel.
To meet the environmental objectives stated for all Department of Defense lands.
To provide within the limits of personnel and budgets opportunities for escorted and controlled groups to use the environmental resources of the Station.
To provide sustained income to offset costs or enhance opportunities to achieve the above objectives.
It is the objective of this plan (not the Station itself) as indicated in DoD 4715.DD-R to:
Support the military mission by managing for the goal of no net loss to the operational carrying capacity of installation lands, and be flexible enough to accommodate increased military requirements for use of these lands.
Identify and ensure compliance with all applicable Federal, State, and local statutory and regulatory requirements, both substantive and procedural.
Address the needs for fish and wildlife management, land management, forest management, and natural resources-oriented outdoor recreation. Installations may not allow trapping, hunting, or fishing, conduct forestry or agricultural outleasing programs, or collect fees for these activities without an approved INRMP.
Ensure overall compatibility and consistency among the various actions and activities conducted under the plan. Interdisciplinary teams shall be used, as appropriate, to develop and revise each INRMP.
Provide for sustained public access and use of natural and cultural resources for educational or recreational purposes, as appropriate. When determining whether such access is appropriate, DoD installations should consider appropriate laws and regulations; military requirements; safety; security; the fragile or sensitive nature of resources; the cost of providing access; whether the resources will support such use; and the effect on the quality of life of DoD Component personnel and their families.
Incorporate a dynamic, continuous process for decisionmaking. Information useful in making future changes or additions to the INRMP should be included.
Year
Score
1
79 2
85
3
88
4
92
5
95
6
96
7
97
8
98
9
98
10
99
11
99
:
:
:
:
18
100
I is the total list of objectives,
T is the planning horizon in years, each year being t
D is demand or the number or units needed
V is value or relative importance, the same as for the v in equation 5
P is the probability of occurrence or (1.0 - Risk of failure).
Go to the top of the page.
| Quick Access to the Contents of LastingForests.com |
|---|
This Web site is maintained by R. H.
Giles, Jr.
Last revision January 17, 2000.