Research has provided information and conclusions that have become the basis for much of the analyses, decisions, and content of Guidance. More than 20 different federal agencies conduct research on pieces of the environment. Research on the Everglades, for example, is being conducted by the Department of the Interior's U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Park Service, the Department of Commerce's National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and Army Corps of Engineers, and myriad of state and local agencies. Research is seen as the subsystem that provides inputs to decisions. It is of five major types: taxonomic and descriptive, parameter estimation, hypothesis testing, distribution development, and modeling. Research is only one, but an important, way to know anything. It has already contributed much. In the larger context of a dynamic system, many fruits of past work and investments are likely yet to be harvested. These returns can be used effectively in new models and expert systems.

Research needs to be continued in a strategic way on carefully-selected topics that will allow informed changes to be made in R very cost effectively. Results of past studies need to be used in the system; results need to be synthesized and used together. Data and photos (etc.) need to be protected. All results need to be brought to bear on area decisions. Preliminary and pre-publication reports are essential. Risks of losing data or reports are high and back-up and fail-safe efforts are essential needs.

Research is costly, so strategic efforts are needed. A list of research topics is available but the over-arching concepts for a research subsystem are as follows.

1. Probable identified use (potential use on the day a conclusion is reached).
2. Results likely to be used in influential decisions.
4. Well-designed sampling with
   • minimum tolerable confidence (usually alpha levels of 0.1 or 0.2)
   • maximum allowable error (usually plus or minus 10%)
   • maximum power
   • well-estimated variance
5. Sequential studies.
6. Use of Bayesian estimators.
7. Use of simulations to assure effects of conclusions.
8. Use of parameter estimates (high, low, and median).
9. Sensitivity analyses (5 and 6 and others).
10. Use of bracketing with Fibonacci search.
11. Use of median estimators (beta and Weibull distributions).
12. Interative data analyses (nightly or weekly prior to next sampling event) with projections of estimated change based on prior sampling.
13. Shared, non-duplicated, multiple-use equipment

The following is a list of needs. Individuals, corporations, foundations, and community groups are encouraged to invest in these important research areas. The list is a basis for immediate planning. Subsequent public and staff inputs may change the list substantially. The list is of the needs perceived in plan development in 1998.

Atmosphere

1. Precipitation quantities in select areas throughout the «1».
2. Daily temperatures (max, min, likely)
3. Cloud cover
4. Ph of precipitation event Ground wind velocities in each stand (using tatter cloth index)

   Lithosphere

5. GRASS-based soil chemical characteristics throughout the «1»
6. Model of consequences of high energy costs on fertilizer availability and soil conditions
7. Use suitability data (SCS) verification on site
8. Erosion rate studies in mapped units (with base measurement points surveyed)

   Hydrosphere

9. Groundwater depth maps (3-D model)
10. Groundwater quality maps
11. Tests of various "wetland" definitions on the area and their consequences
12. Annual stream water quality dynamics

    Biosphere

13. Human health profiles of samples of employees and neighbors
14. Demographics of the region

    Botanical

    1. Floral survey (baseline) 17. Ecology of the whorled pagonia 18. Species-specific ecology of select plants 19. Mast surveys (hard and soft) 20. A regional plant data base
    2. Wetland community dynamics
    3. Influences of water stress in pines
    4. Community phytomass

       Faunal

    5. Tick surveys
    6. Insect biodiversity
    7. Deer populations dynamics
    8. Raccoon population dynamics
    9. Population regulation in the groundhog, Marmota monax
    10. Ecology and dynamics of residential birds
    11. Heavy metal content of select animal tissue.

A comprehensive ecological simulation of the area is now feasible. As funds become available, efforts to develop such a simulator will be planned.

Ahlig (1989) said that the "long delays between problem identification and completion of research and the unpredictable nature of the research process make a perfect matching of research findings with practitioner needs highly unlikely."

A research strategy is needed, one that increases the chance for a match. Herein the objectives "drive" research. If a suggested project is not likely to provide knowledge for decisions that tend to improve R, then the proposed work is for someone else.

A comprehensive model (actual or anticipated) is the format, the places into which research finding will be placed.

A team suggests needs. Scientists seek to conduct cost effective studies. Assistance is gained to assure continuity of studies and learning. There are more needs than resources (all types). Allocating the resources is done based on cost-effective expected change in R.

Research is observed by invited reviewers who have a feedback role, not just monitoring.

Go to the top of the page.

This Web site is maintained by R. H. Giles, Jr.
Last revision January 17, 2000.