| A unit of Lasting Forests
evolving since March 30, 1999 |
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A Total Forest Management Plan
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A diverse calendar web site is available.
Sun and moon conditions for any day, anywhere, is also available.
Early History
Historical work will be encouraged by local citizens, especially in taped conversations, and with work with base records.
Time and the Planning Period
The Trevey will be responsive to demands of the rural decision maker for many different response periods or temporal-need horizons. These include:
A time graph is attached. The text seeks to put the area in both an historical as well as futuristic context. The oldest trees are physical manifestations of events when the seedling sprouted, and a collection of survival responses to unnamed events during the years of the tree. The oldest trees may be related, then, to the Jamestown Settlement, the Declaration of Independence, the surrender at the Appomattox, the Depression, and World War II. These events, oldest trees, the present, and a planning horizon (the years to the end of the planning period) can all be seen and related, at least linearly on the time line or time graph presented.
The relative significance of, or proportion of, the future planning period (the future as related to the past) to past events may be noted.
This section seeks to emphasize ecological time, the sense of relevant change, and the idea of both long-term production and the ponderous rate of nature in achieving certain desired conditions.
There is no intent to suggest or imply the future will be like the past. Many people believe that events and rates, particularly of technological change, have increased, and thus, the time line for the future should be decreased in length exponentially.
The life expectancy of analysts with an assumed age of 30, is about 70. The relation in the computer is:
Expected Date = Today's Date + (70 - 30).
This is only slightly less than the 50-year planning horizon used within the system.
Types of temporal rhythms observed in nature are as follows:
High frequency (f symbolizes "frequencies ") (f < 0.5 hours) - alpha waves of the brain, heart beat, respiration
Medium frequency
Ultridian (f < 0.50 > 20 hours)
Circadian (f > 20 < 28 hours) - exists in the absence of rhythmic environmental change, e.g., daylight.
Diurnal - like circadian but varies with such environmental change. Activity periods such as nocturnal (during darkness), diurnal (during daylight), and crepuscular (during twilight periods).
Infradian (f > 28 < 60 hours, i.e., 2.5 days)
Low frequency (f > 60 hours, i.e., 2.5 days)
Cicaseptidian (f = 168 hours, i.e., 7 days)
Circavignitidian (f = 480 hours, i.e., 20 days)
Circatrigintian (f = 700 hours, i.e., 30 days)
Circennian (f = 8760 hours, i.e., 365 days)
Recent reports (Ecology, 2005) are that crabs follow a 14 month rythm
The time of an event during the day is of significance to the individual and population. Because of circadian rhythm, for example, the status of an individual varies widely. The all-pervasive output of the adrenal gland, corticosterone, varied from 0.4 of the mean when sampled at 4 p.m., and 1.8 times the mean when sampled at 4 a.m. (in darkness). This change of 4.5 times can influence an animal's response to predation, pesticides, sudden temperature changes, and probably to conception. Noise can increase estrus, decrease male fertilization, and reduce pregnancies and fetuses. The significance is that an animal on one day is not a "point observation " to the informed ecologist, land-use manager, or natural resource specialist. That animals vary widely in response to the same stimulus (e.g., to a capture dart drug) should come as no surprise if the response occurs at a different time of day. In a community, when an animal is different, the community is different. Each land unit is probably unique, at least at a point of time.
A planning period of 150 years is used within The Trevey. One hundred and fifty years is also called the planning horizon. In The Trevey, the period is always estimated as from the current date. It is always shifting ahead one year to look ahead for 150 years.
Previous studies of an appropriate planning period (Why 5 or 10-year plans? Why not 7 or 12?) suggested "the longer the better " because conventional cost estimation is done based on present discounting. The longer an investment can produce, the greater will be the benefits. Short planning periods always produce "best answers " as being short term, quick-return projects (the difference between short-term planting of corn or long-term planting of fruit trees). The sliding 150-year planning period is a trade-off between selecting a period that is too brief and too long. It exceeds the 30-year period often used for capital investment in utilities. It is less than for many forest investments; inappropriate for parkland, wilderness, or quality-hardwood-lumber investment.
An alternative long-range discounting procedure recommended by Overton and Hunt (1974) is presented in many analyses that follow. A time line is presented to suggest some of the relations of changes over the past so that they may be related similarly for developing future expectations and for planning. Perhaps the rate of change may change?
| - 1600 --- Jamestown, 1608 Purchase of Manhattan, 1626 |
| - 1650 --- Isaac Newton's exposition on gravity 1665 |
| - 1700 --- First stagecoach line 1732 State of Georgia founded 1733 |
| - 1750 --- Patrick Henry's speech, May 29, 1765 Declaration of Independence 1776 British surrender at Yorktown, October 19, 1781 |
| - 1800 -- Purchase of Louisiana, January 1803 |
| - 1850 --- Surrender at Appomattox, 1865 |
| - 1900 ---Oldest Tree on property, 1880First Atlantic cable, July 27, 1866 First airplane (Wright Brothers), December 17, 1903 |
| - 1950 --- Depression - 1933; Second World War, 1941; Date of area acquisition, 1942 |
| - 2000 ---This year, 2001 |
| - 2050 ---Life Expectancy of Owner, (This year plus 25) End of the Planning horizon, 2051 |
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This Web site is maintained by R. H.
Giles, Jr.
Last revision January 17, 2000.